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Are the data models the State is using accurate? How do they account for all the day-to-day changes?
The State chose dynamic data models that take into account what we are seeing on the ground at a local level. New Jersey uses an ensemble of models which allow us to:
- Capture trends at a zip code granularity not captured by most other models
- Capture both short-term and long-term trends
- Consistently show errors less than 1-2% on a daily basis over short-term forecasts in many of our models
- Model "stay at home" dynamics that are tailored to the social distancing dynamics of a given geography
With the situation constantly changing, the State is careful to take nothing for granted and update our models daily with the latest information on confirmed cases and deaths by county, as well as hospitalization rates and discharges for every facility.